Key Study for the Dual Processing Model (Thinking and Decision Making)

Travis Dixon Cognitive Psychology 20 Comments

The study in this blog post provides evidence for how people are prone to using system one processing when making decisions.

The following is adapted from: “IB Psychology: A Revision Guide.”

Tversky and Kahneman spent many years studying people’s thinking and decision making. As a result, they devised a dual processing model that attempts to explain two systems people use when processing information: system one and system two. The system used to process information can affect our decision making.

  • System one processing is intuitive (automatic), fast, unconscious, and based on experiences.
  • System two processing is rational (controlled), slow, conscious, and based on consequences.

Relying on system one can lead to making errors in judgement and incorrect decisions, as can be seen in the study below.

The following terms could be used in IB Psychology SAQs about thinking and decision making: rational (controlled) and intuitive (automatic).


In order to properly describe the dual processing model, you should aim to be able to use at least 3-4 adjectives to describe each system, especially rational (controlled) and intuitive (automatic).

Key Study: Judgement Under Uncertainty (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974)

The following study is one example of the numerous tests Kahneman and Tversky devised to test people’s mental shortcuts and biases when making decisions. In one task, they had 95 participants and they gave them the following scenario:

  • A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital about 45 babies are born each day, and in the smaller hospital about 15 babies are born each day. As you know, about 50 percent of all babies are boys. However, the exact percentage varies from day to day. Sometimes it may be higher than 50 percent, sometimes lower. For a period of 1 year, each hospital recorded the days on which more than 60 percent of the babies born were boys. Which hospital do you think recorded more such days?
    • The larger hospital
    • The smaller hospital
    • About the same (that is, within 5 percent of each other)

The researchers then recorded the participants responses. The correct answer is the smaller hospital, because statistical probabilities suggest that the larger the sample size (e.g. the more babies born) the closer it will get to the average, so it is more likely that a small hospital will have more disproportionate days.

However, 78% of participants got this wrong and most (56%) chose option three – about the same, “…presumably because these events are described by the same statistic and are therefore equally representative of the general population.” In other words, because birth-rate is 50/50, they assumed the probability in this scenario would also be 50/50. They were using system one and were going with intuition, rather than using system two and using logic and reasoning to deduce the correct answer. They were also using a representative heuristic (see below).

This is a simple study that can be used to demonstrate the dual processing model. Here are two others:

Exam Tips

If asked about “thinking and decision making” in an exam question, describing the model and then summarizing the above study should be enough. However, if you have time available I would also recommend writing a couple of sentences suggesting that studies have shown (e.g. Bechara et al.) that damage to the brain (e.g. vmPFC) is a factor that can affect how we process information and making decisions.

If the question is: “Explain one study related to thinking and decision making,” then I think either Kahneman and Tversky’s or Bechara et al.’s studies are equally suited. However, you may want to go with Kahneman and Tversky’s study since the dual processing model is their model.

More Info: Heuristics

The problem above is an example of what Kahneman and Tversky call “heuristics.” These are cognitive biases (or shortcuts) that people use when making decisions. There are different types of heuristics and the test above is an example of people using the “representativeness heuristic.” This is used when people are making judgements based on probabilities. Instead of assessing the problem logically (system two), they think of an object or event as being representative of other similar objects or events, so they use the same probability across multiple scenarios. In other words, one probability is used to represent (and to calculate) other similar probabilities.

For example, in the above problem they are using the average birth rate of 50/50 boys/girls to represent the other probabilities about birth rates in specific hospitals, even though this is incorrect.

Heuristic: “rules of thumb that are cognitively undemanding and often produce approximately accurate answers.” (Eyesenck and Keane, 2010)

Critical Thinking Considerations 

  • Does the above study show that all people use heuristics (system one) when processing information?
  • When participants provide answers to the above problem, there are not consequences for their decisions. Does this affect the generalizability of these results to other situations? Can you think of situations where people might be less likely to use system one (heuristics) to make decisions because of consequences?
  • What factors might affect individual differences in processing information? (See Bechara et al.)
  • Does the dual processing model and the associated studies suffer from cultural biases? (These were studied mainly in Western countries). Can you think of any reasons to think why we might not expect the same results in some cultures?
  • Why is understanding how we process information a relevant field of study? Can you think of any potential applications of this research?

Eyesenck and Keane, Cognitive Psychology: A Student’s Handbook. 2010
Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157. (Sep. 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131 (Link)

Comments 20

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      I believe so, but personally I would stick to the list in the guide. There are a lot of ambiguities and uncertainties in the guide, but for this topic it’s pretty black-and-white. Having said that, they have cognitive dissonance as a possible bias and it’s not a cognitive bias, so….

  1. Hi, I’m kind of confused how to differentiate between answering the thinking and decision making question using the dual processing model and answering the biases in thinking and decision making question using heuristics.. this study involves heuristics so I get why it can answer the bias question, but would it work on answering the dual processing model? I know it involves system 1 and 2 thinking but I’m not sure how to avoid turning it into a heuristics essay…


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      For the biases in thinking and decision making, you would define the bias and then perhaps explain why it occurs (you could use the dual process model to support this) and then explain the above study. For the thinking and decision making, you should begin by describing in full the model and then explain the study; you wouldn’t have to mention heuristics, but you could if you wanted to.

      So actually, you could include the same content for either question, I think, just flip which one comes first depending on the question. The reason the order is important is because it will help you be “focused on the question.”

      I’d also recommend writing out the answers as practice. You might get a better sense after you write them.

  2. Hi Travis- I was wondering how to tackle a potential SAQ specifically on ‘rational thinking’. Does the study have to demonstrate the use of system 2 explicitly or can the study evidence system 1 use over system 2? Do you have any recommendations for studies which would work well in this possible SAQ?
    Thank you!

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      Hi Rhiannon,

      Rational shouldn’t be separated from intuitive (it should say “and” or “and/or”). I think any study that shows intuitive thinking also shows rational thinking, because in any of these studies participants have two ways they could decide (otherwise how are we comparing decision-making)? e.g. in Kahnemman’s above study those who get it wrong are using intuitive thinking, those who get it right are thinking rationally. Hope this helps.

  3. Hi Travis. In the list above, you have System 2 being based on experiences, but then in the chart below it, it states that System 1 is based on experiences. I thought it was System 1 based on experiences and System 2 based on consequences. Could you confirm, please? Thank you!

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      Well-spotted and you’re right. System 1 is based on experiences, and System 2 based on consequences. I’ve fixed it now.

  4. Dear Travis Dixon,
    Allow me to express my feeling about the mistakes which you have done in your “Thematic Education’s IB Psychology SAQs and Review Revision help for the ‘additional terms'”. You have copied the whole wordings of the definition of rational thinking as system two into the definition of intuitive thinking as system two. Your supplement document has other typing mistakes which I cannot count for. It is very frustrating and to some extent unacceptable since we as your customers have brought your student’s guide and revision guide and even more teaching resources in your shop, but the quality of the products does not meet what they are supposed to be, in other words, we are little disappointed about your products. We hope that you can make more and better products to help more IB students from taking psychology and ToK. But, please, and it is really important, make sure you have proofread several times to ensure the content of your products is not missing or imprecise to avoid such mistakes will bring many inconveniences for students to do their study and revision. And here is the final reminder, please change the definition of intuitive thinking the system one of the dual processing model, Thank you.

    1. Post

      Hi Jake. It appears you have an older version of this guide. In November 2020 we released the updated version which was fully copy-edited with the error you mention fixed, as well as a few other typos. I will email this to you. Everyone who purchased the guide was emailed the latest version. I cannot find your name or email in our files, so I assuming someone must have bought the file for you, which would explain why you weren’t emailed the latest update. I appreciate the feedback. Rest assured all our materials are copy-edited, twice (pre and post design). But we all make mistakes and the best I try to do is keep improving my materials. I appreciate all feedback that helps get the best materials to students. I hope you can also benefit from the hundreds of free posts on this blog and the hours and hours of free video tutorials on YouTube designed specifically to help IB students. Thanks. Travis.

  5. Hi Travis Dixon,
    I am preparing for my IB psychology paper 1 right now for the one on the 19th of May. I was looking at the ERQs for Biases in Thinking and Decision Making and I was really confused, because all the biases that were used are in correspondence to the dual processing model. The one bias we learnt in class was the confirmation bias which is in correspondence to schema theory. But thinking and decision making is only for dual processing as Schema Theory is not part of thinking and decision making but its own thing. What I am asking is can we use confirmation bias when asked in an ERQ such as ” Discuss one biases in thinking and decision making.” ?
    Thank you very much for your help in Advance.

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  6. Hi Mr Dixon,

    I was thinking about using Tverksy and Kahneman’s framing effect study for biases and models of thinking and decision making.

    However, I do not understand how it would answer the latter, and rational thinking, and intuitive thinking.
    For instance, what characteristic of intuitive thinking does the study show? It’s not like they were timed, thus the participants were forced to “quickly” use a fast and intuitive shortcut.

  7. Hi Travis,
    I have some students partially replicating Tversky and Kahneman 1981 with a similar scenario to the original re. the outbreak of an unusual disease. They have been begun by focusing on the Dual Processing Model (and using it – and the use of heuristics to explain the framing effect) – but Prospect Theory is what is outlined in the original research. Do you think it is ok to maintain focus on the model to explain the reliance on system-one thinking that is more easily influenced by ‘framing’? Or should they be guided by the more precise reference to Prospect Theory? Interested in your perspective – thanks!

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      It’s up to them to decide which theory or model they think would work best. It’s OK to use a theory other than that explained in the original.

  8. Hi Travis,

    I was just wondering how you would structure an ERQ if it said EVALUATE one model of thinking and decision making. Should your evaluative paragraphs/ counter-arguments be focused on evaluating the study or the theory. e.g. the theory is highly testable, here’s a study, and then your counterargument is evaluating the study or should it be more focused on the limitations of the theory?

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